The Conning Commentary - 2024 Election Special: Once more into the breach…
In Short
The nation is once again engaged in its great test of democracy, conducting a national presidential election. This quadrennial event sets the regulatory agenda for the federal policy and influences state policies. This election cycle is no different. In every election, there are clear differences between the Democratic and Republican parties on about every issue. These differences have been amplified by continued partisanship and then ramped up on steroids by social and traditional media echo chambers. As a result, there is little common ground to be found on the key issues facing the nation.
As this is written in mid-September 2024, the presidential election is too close to call. Gerrymandering has rendered most Congressional elections irrelevant. At a state level, most states are under the control of a single political party.
Our election special looks at the key issues facing the insurance industry in the presidential, Congressional, and state elections. It reviews those issues and outlines the position of each party. While we do not predict the outcome of any election, we do provide our insight and analysis of the impact of those on the insurance industry based on an election outcome.
The presidential election
Presidential elections, in theory, address the broadest possible range of issues. From foreign policy and defense to economic and domestic policy, not to mention any raging social or cultural issues of the day, nominees and their party are expected to have a clearly articulated position.
In reality, a handful of issues dominate the election, and the nominees and their parties are often less than clear and forthcoming on those issues.
From an insurance industry perspective, there are several issues of key interest, many of which are always on the list. Every election sets the direction and tone of economic policy.
Following the hottest recorded year in recent history, combined with another year of above-average natural catastrophe losses the differences in the parties’ climate policies are of strong interest to the industry. Social Security, and potential changes to it, are once again on the table. Joining the list of election issue staples are Medicare and Medicaid reform, along with immigration.
Financial regulation has made a reappearance. FinReg has increased in importance following efforts in 2023 to increase fiduciary standards and the growing scrutiny of the reinsurance market.
The new entrant in the presidential issue list is AI, specifically policies toward use and continued development. For the insurance industry looking to AI, and its supporting technologies to deliver real solutions to consumers and increase productivity, the policies in this area may prove especially important over the longer term.
Regardless of the issues, should government be divided, the probability of significant progress on any agenda item is limited.
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