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Market Compass May 2023

In breve

A team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Good data on the economy and earnings, in conjunction with less hawkish expectations on the FED helped markets overcome the fears about the state of the banking sector.
  • Yet we expect the economic slowdown, the looming credit crunch, lower earnings and rising defaults to take their toll on financial markets.
  • The war in Ukraine, simmering US/China tensions and the US debt ceiling dispute are adding to the downside risks.
  • We maintain a cautious stance on Equities and High Yield (HY), while favouring Government Bonds, non-financial EUR Investment Grade (IG) Credit and – more cautiously – EM bonds. We also like US Treasuries for their hedging properties against more adverse scenarios.

 

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Market Compass May 2023
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