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Market Compass February 2024

In Short

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • “Immaculate disinflation” is getting increasingly consensual and brightening the 2024 market outlook, leading to a further increase in risk appetite.
  • Rate cut expectations are flattening out. 2H23 US economic strength has likely caused complacency about actual risks, helping risk assets to perform positively again in January.
  • Stagflationary geopolitical risks in the Middle East may challenge the increasingly consensual Goldilocks view (continued disinflation, resilient growth).
  • Even with a soft landing more likely, we see limited value in extending risk-taking right now – we prefer safer buckets in Fixed Income (IG) and tactically raise cash exposure.

 

Download the full publication below

Compass 02 2024 FINAL.pdf
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