Equity sector models and strategy: still OW on Value but turning more constructive on staples

In Short

In the last month, equities were able to advance further thanks to a lingering good macro momentum with central banks reassuring against a bold hawkish change in stance. Furthermore, vaccinations progressed well, and the activity reopening in the euro area (EA) continued.

Highlights:

  • We provide an assessment of European sectors and styles judging from the signals produced by our quant models, further enriched by our qualitative analysis.
  • The bulk of the overweight is maintained in Value sectors, financials and energy, to leverage on economic recovery, higher 10-year yields and CPI.
  • We increased even further the exposure to households – bottoming earnings revisions and peaking confidence indicators – financing it with a higher underweight in Media (poor revisions and quant models).
  • Regarding specific sectors, we overweight banks, div. financials, energy, materials, household & personal products, software and tech hardware and underweight cons. services, media, real estate, utilities and telecoms.
  • Our quantitative analysis coming from Machine Learning (ML) and classic approaches shows undervaluation for energy, auto and software and overvaluation for comm. & prof. services, pharma, telecoms, media, materials, food, cons. services and retailing.
  • Among European styles, undervaluation is indicated for defensives, momentum, small cap and min. volatility. Expensive are low leverage, large cap and cyclicals.

Download the full publication below

Equity sector models and strategy: still OW on Value but turning more constructive on staples

The latest views, research and investment insights from our experts

Picture

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments Holding S.p.A. as the holding company of the main asset management companies of the Generali Group having, directly or indirectly, the majority shareholding in the companies listed below (hereinafter jointly, “Generali Investments”). This website may contain information related to the activity of the following companies: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (including Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* and among its subsidiaries Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - including Global Evolution USA, LLC and Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC as well as Generali Investments CEE. *Includes Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc., Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collectively, “Conning”).